Market Update 26th April – 2nd May

Welcome to Orbis Exchange Group’s market update.

26th April - 2nd May 2021

Where you will be able to keep up to date with all the latest changes in the currency market.

Great British Pound

Here in the UK, the business sector has seen a huge increase of new orders since a large section of the economy opening at the beginning of April.

This month’s PMI jumped to 60, after a strong reading of 56.4 last month.

Economists are aware now that the UK economy is well on track is numbers continue to impress and exceed expectations. Large retail companies, with the likes of Primark breaking their sales records recently.

Many consumers are revenge spending over the past few weeks since being kept in their homes due to lockdown restrictions.

Further, the inflation rate has risen due to an increase is the prices of fuel, clothing and so on, as the economy has re-opened.

Inflation is expected to surge further in the coming months, following a sharp increase in household energy bills in April and rising global oil prices.

Inflation would hit 1.9% before the end of the year,

In February, the Bank of England forecast that inflation would hit 1.9% before the end of the year, although many economists believe it will surpass the central bank’s 2% target a lot sooner than this. On the other hand, payroll numbers were lower than in March, which will apply pressure on the currency.

Last week the EU correlated with the UK with a boost in PMI data. Germany’s manufacturing sector remains at the forefront of improved business conditions.

However, the Eurozone is still having to handle a surge of COVID-19 cases and will find it challenging to catch the UK.

€750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP).

The European Central Bank has kept its key interest rate on hold last Thursday and will continue with the current €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP).

The bank’s current bond buying levels of 28bn euros per month are at the same level as the height of the crisis.

Germany will dominate the data points this week, starting with IFO business climate surveys today. The survey interviews business owners about their hopes for the next six months but these are not big market movers in the uncertainty of the current market.

We will see the next section of unemployment and inflation figures on Thursday, which will see job numbers the priority focus as inflation is being despondent by restrictions.

US Dollar

Sterling reached a six-week high against the US Dollar at the early stages of last week due to rising optimism driven by vaccine roll-out success and a drop in unemployment numbers.

Continued falling of US bond

The continued falling of US bond yields reduces the US currency’s yield allure. This all comes at a time where the Federal Reserve could potentially tighten monetary policy at a slower pace than initially expected.

The dollar bounced mid-week due to broad weakness in stock markets, sparked by a resurgence of COVID-19 cases globally. This allowed a renewed appetite for the Dollar’s safe-haven appeal. The US currency’s rebound was also accompanied by softer US Treasury yields.