Market Update 21st November – 25th November

Where you will be able to keep up to date with all the latest changes in the currency market

GBP

Last week we saw quite a big release in the amount of economic data released in the UK, CPI data was released which showed inflation levels rise from 10.1% to 11.1%. This saw the Pound drop 0.5% against the EUR. Most importantly we had the autumn statement on Thursday, this saw the 45p tax bracket drop from £150,000 to £125,140. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt also formally announced that the UK is in Recession. We saw rates drop 0.8% against the EUR and 1% against the USD. Even against these drops we saw the best rate against the USD we have seen since the back end of August. This week we have the CIPS Services PMI coming out on Wednesday, this is an overview of the economic situation in the services sector. Should the readings come out as above 50 signal points then this will be seen as positive for the GBP as it shows expansion, should we see a reading below 50 points this shows contraction and could negatively affect GBP quotes.

EUR

Last week for the EUR we had GDP figures released, the figures came out as no change from the last month, still at level of 0.2. Because this showed no growth the EUR dropped 0.5% against the GBP and no change against the USD. We also had CPI data for the eurozone released last Thursday, this showed similar to the GDP figures, no change over the last month, because this showed the inflation rate not growing but still not declining. The EUR saw a small drop of 0.3% against the USD and 0.2% against the GBP. This week we have the Consumer Confidence Index coming out on Tuesday. This shows the level of consumer confidence in economic activity, a high level shows economic expansion but a low reading shows economic downturn. Should the readings return with a high level then this can be positive for EUR quotes. We also have GDP figures coming out in Germany for Friday, should we see growth in these figures then this can be positive for the EUR, should we see a decrease in figures then this can be seen as negative for the EUR.

USD

We had the retail sales from last week released for the USD, this saw a growth bigger than expected, a rise of 1.3%, this saw the USD rise 0.5% against the GBP and just under 0.5% against the EUR. Overall we saw one of the weakest weeks for the USD in the last 3 months. This week we have the Durable Goods Order being released this Wednesday that measures the cost of orders for goods which are planned to last 3 years or more such as Motor vehicles and appliances. Because these goods require larger investments, they are more sensitive to the economical situation of the US. The final figure we see should it be a high reading can positively impact the USD, if the figures come back with a low reading then this could potentially weaken USD quotes.