Welcome to Orbis Exchange Group’s market update.

12th-18th April 2021

Where you will be able to keep up to date with all the latest changes in the currency market.

Great British Pound

The British Pound starts the week with renewed losses against the EUR and the USD.

We have seen a decline of 2-3% against the EUR and the USD over the last week,

with fears of the vaccine rollout slowing and the uncertainty of the AstraZeneca vaccines viability causing this sudden drop.

However a lot of analysts are predicting GBP to recover over the coming weeks with all non-essential retail and hospitality industry opening up to the public again.

Revenge spenders

This is expected to be positive for GBP as ‘revenge spenders’ are expected to hit the retail stores in large volumes which will only boost the economy’s recovery.

Trying to catch up with the vaccine rollout

As well as this the majority of Europe are still trying to catch up with the vaccine rollout and majority of them are still under strict restrictions and some have even been pushed into a further lockdown.

All these factors are seen as sterling positive however a lot of analysts and investors are also being cautious about the infection rate rising significantly with the pubs and restaurant’s opening back up as we have seen it in the past where this is likely to cause cases to rise again.

EUR found some recovery

The EUR found some recovery last week and strengthened against the USD and GBP due to the European Central Bank minutes being released which helped create more clarity amongst a lot of traders.

Risks have become more balanced

The Bank highlighted that risks have become more balanced in the Eurozone. This is largely down to the banks flight last year with deflation. However in the minutes the bank released many references to the US Stimulus package coming out saying it would be a driver for European growth.

However countries such as France still haven’t vaccinated the over 80s category yet and are playing catch up with the UK.

This factor as well as many countries in the EU going back into another lockdown is likely to cause the EUR to lose ground against the major currencies as their economic recovery is predicted to be a lot slower than that of the UK’s due to the lack of vaccinations being handed out as well as a lack of certainty around industries and the economy reopening.

US Dollar

The USD has recovered some ground against the EUR and GBP over the last couple of weeks spiking 4-5% against these major currencies.

Every adult expected to be offered a vaccination by the end of May

President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package will boost the US economy and drive rapid global growth this year, that is the view of the IMF following its latest meeting of members, which is taking place throughout this week.

According to the organisation of 190 countries, the US economy will exceed its pre-pandemic size with growth reaching 6.4% this year – up 1.3% from the IMF’s forecast in January. The rebound is expected to help the global economy expand 6% in 2021, an upgrade of 0.5%.

However worker filings for jobless claims unexpectedly rose for a second week, signifying the uneven nature of the labour market recovery in the US. As well as this the US like Europe are still playing catch up in their vaccine rollout which could indicate why the USD is still the weakest it’s been for a couple of months now.


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